Quantum Leap or Security Nightmare? How Quantum Computing Could Reshape Global Power
Author
Sabreena Shukul
Editor
Daniel Diamond
Introduction
In the realm of cutting-edge technologies, few innovations generate as much excitement and trepidation as quantum computing. Once a theoretical pursuit, quantum computing is on the verge of achieving “quantum supremacy,” meaning it can solve certain problems far faster than any classical supercomputer could. The implications are vast, from shattering encryption standards that protect our most sensitive data to ushering in new frontiers of pharmaceutical research and artificial intelligence. Yet for policymakers, the primary question is equally urgent and unsettling: What happens when quantum computers break the cryptographic systems we rely on to protect everything from bank transactions to national security secrets?
At its heart, a quantum computer harnesses properties of physics at the atomic and subatomic levels. Unlike traditional computers that operate using bits (which can be either 0 or 1), quantum computers use “qubits,” which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, a phenomenon known as superposition. When qubits become entangled, changes to one qubit can instantly affect its entangled partner, enabling extraordinarily parallel processing capabilities.
Why Encryption Matters and Why Quantum Computers Threaten It
Today’s digital world relies on complex encryption to secure everything from credit card transactions to classified intelligence. Public-key cryptography (such as RSA or elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC)) rests on factoring large numbers or solving certain mathematical problems, taking classical computers an astronomically long time. However, Shor’s Algorithm exploits the power of quantum computing to factor large integers exponentially faster, thus unravelling RSA and ECC. Meanwhile, Grover’s Algorithm speeds up brute-force attacks, effectively halving the security strength of symmetric algorithms like AES.
If these quantum attacks become feasible, leagues of stored data could be decrypted. Certain malicious actors may already be harvesting now, decrypting later, and collecting encrypted data for future quantum breakthroughs. This threat extends beyond personal and e-commerce privacy to healthcare data, cloud storage, and sensitive government or military communications. Even blockchain networks, long regarded as “unhackable,” are not immune with around a quarter of existing bitcoin addresses being vulnerable.
A Race with Global Consequences: The U.S.-China Quantum Rivalry
Globally, countries are vying for a place in the quantum era. China’s investment in the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences, estimated at around $10 billion, highlights its ambition to be a leader, especially in quantum communication. Chinese researchers are already testing intercontinental video calls protected by quantum-encrypted networks and have demonstrated significant advances in fibre optic quantum communication.
In the United States, both the government and private sector are pouring resources into quantum R&D. The National Quantum Initiative Act, the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, and the NSA’s focus on quantum-resistant encryption underscore the priority of safeguarding national security. Corporate heavyweights like Google and IBM, along with startups such as IonQ and Rigetti, are pushing the hardware boundaries with Google’s newly unveiled “Willow” chip, reportedly performing certain calculations in minutes that would stump classical supercomputers for billions of years.
Europe has embarked on the Quantum Technology Flagship, a €1 billion, 10-year program to advance quantum computing and related fields. Germany and Spain are weaving quantum processors into their supercomputing facilities, signalling a readiness to integrate quantum tech into existing digital infrastructures. Canada also plays a prominent role with the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing, combined with pioneering companies like D-Wave Systems, which has put Canada on the quantum map.
National Security and the New Arms Race
For policymakers, quantum technology isn’t just a scientific marvel but rather an era of strategic competition. Quantum computers have the potential to decrypt opponents’ communications, disrupt military command systems, and accelerate data analytics to glean insights from vast swaths of intercepted information. At the same time, the allure of quantum safe communications, via quantum key distribution, promises eavesdropping-proof networks for those who achieve it first.
This new arms race is already reshaping international alliances and tensions. A country with impenetrable quantum cryptography and the ability to break an adversary’s conventional encryption could theoretically access unmatched intelligence and cybersecurity advantages. Quantum-enhanced navigation systems, immune to GPS interference, could further alter military logistics and strategic operations.
Far from being confined to state actors, quantum’s impending capabilities pose existential threats and opportunities for the global economy. The quantum computing market itself could surge from around $10 billion in 2022 to more than $100 billion by 2030, as industries from finance to pharmaceuticals seek to harness quantum’s potential to solve complex optimization problems and accelerate R&D.
Yet with great power comes great vulnerability:
Financial Services: Banks and trading firms depend on encryption to secure transactions, personal data, and high-frequency trading algorithms. A breach or wide-scale decryption event could collapse trust in the financial system.
Healthcare: Patient records, confidential research data, and telemedicine communications are at risk of quantum decryption. At the same time, quantum algorithms could drastically improve drug discovery and genomic research.
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: The fundamental trust model of many blockchain systems relies on cryptographic signatures that quantum computers could forge or break, jeopardizing entire decentralized networks.
Who Will Win the Quantum Arms Race?
States are already responding to develop post-quantum cryptography with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) leading the charge, finalizing new quantum-resistant algorithms. Industry giants like Microsoft and Google have already started testing these algorithms in products and protocols, laying the groundwork for broader adoption. Policymakers should be focusing on assessing vulnerabilities by inventorying their cryptographic systems and data lifecycles to identify high-risk assets. Next, there needs to be planning for the transition to post-quantum algorithms, and most importantly collaboration and standardized global standards for enhanced encryption.
Predicting outright “winners” is fraught, given quantum research evolves rapidly. Right now, the United States maintains a broad lead thanks to a powerful combination of government funding, private-sector innovation, and research partnerships. China, however, has demonstrated exceptional focus and government-supported drive, especially in quantum communication, an area poised to revolutionize secure data transfer. Europe and Canada, with substantial public-private collaborations, could yet claim key breakthroughs, particularly in the realm of fundamental research and specialized quantum hardware.
The most probable outcome is ongoing competition where leaders shift as different quantum capabilities mature. While one country might excel in quantum hardware, another could lead in quantum communication or the standardization of post-quantum cryptographic protocols.
Quantum computing is poised to reshape industries, revamp national security priorities, and challenge our longstanding assumptions about data privacy and global power dynamics. For countries like Canada, this balance is especially critical. Policymakers should not only strengthen quantum R&D through public–private partnerships and international collaboration but also accelerate the deployment of post-quantum cryptography across critical infrastructure sectors. By embracing both innovation and security, nations can mitigate the risks while harnessing the immense potential of quantum technology, ensuring that they do not just keep pace with global advancements but lead the charge in a secure digital future.